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365 Analysis
WHERE GOAL SCORERS GO TO DIE
01/07/02

by Jeff Dieffenbach

On a hot and sunny Saturday afternoon, World Cup players Clint Mathis of the New York MetroStars and Carlos Llamosa of the New England Revolution led the parade of officials and players through a large inflatable soccer ball at the stadium’s North end and onto the CMGI Field pitch.

A short while later, in the game’s fifth minute, both players figured prominently in the game’s first goal. Mathis lofted a 40-yard pass over the head of Llamosa, who had pulled up in an attempt to spring the offside trap. No flag, no whistle, just a streaking Mamadou Diallo. Diallo ran onto the ball, controlled it, then slotted it past an onrushing Adin Brown to give the MetroStars a 1-0 lead.

The goal hurt all the more, as Diallo (who was ejected in the 32nd minute for failing to pull out of a late challenge on Brown) headlined the May 24 trade that sent him and the Revolution’s Andy Williams and Ted Chronopolous to the MetroStars in exchange for Diego Serna, Daniel Hernandez, and Brian Kamler.

To date, the MetroStars have gotten the better of the deal, with their new trio averaging more than 15 minutes more per game. On the scoreboard, they’ve scored at more than five times the rate and assisted at more than twice the rate of the Revolution trio.

Diallo’s goal places an exclamation point on a larger trend: New England seems to be where goal scorers (figuratively) go to die.

An analysis of sixteen current and former Revolution players with at least ten career MLS goals yields the following.

These players can be placed into one of four groups: those whose only MLS minutes have come with the Revolution, those who started with the New England before moving on, those who got going elsewhere before going to the Revolution, and those whose New England minutes were sandwiched between stints elsewhere.

GROUP 1, New England only – On a goals per minute basis, two of the Revolution’s three most productive players saw their only MLS minutes in New England. A member of the original squad in 1996, Joe-Max Moore netted 5.52 goals per thousand minutes before leaving for the English Premiere League after the 1999 season. More recently, newcomer Taylor Twellman of 1860 Munich has debuted with the Revolution in 2002 at the astonishing pace of 10.38 goals per thousand minutes.

To put Taylor’s accomplishment into perspective, his 10.38 ranks 18th out of the 1,915 MLS “player-seasons” since 1996. Of the 255 player-seasons with more than 5 goals, his tallies this year put him at 7th.

Unfortunately, the rest of the Revolution’s big name scorers have seen fit to ply their trade more for other MLS clubs.

GROUP 2, New England first – Four 10-goal scorers started in New England before moving on: Alexi Lalas, Ariel Graziani, Ted Chronopolous, and Welton. Lalas’ 6.62 goals/thousand minutes jumped to 1.45 after leaving New England. Welton’s 1.57 climbed to 5.34. Graziani’s 0.00 (!) exploded to 6.38. Only Chronopolous’ count went down, from 1.31 to 0.00. However, if Ted scores once in his next 430 or so minutes (4+ full games), he too will have seen a rise.

GROUP 3, New England last – The trend is even clearer for those players starting elsewhere before coming to the Revolution: Alex Pineda Chacon (9.25 to 1.62), Diego Serna (6.45 to 4.85), Eduardo Hurtado (5.22 to 0.00), Mauricio Ramos (2.87 to 1.79), and Wolde Harris (5.52 to 4.08). Harris’s numbers would look worse except for his impressive 15 goal effort in his first year with the Revolution. After that, though, his production dropped to 3 and now 1 for the current year.

Hurtado and Ramos fared so poorly, they exited the league completely. And Serna almost took the “where goal scorers go to die” appellation seriously, as he was injured, but not seriously, in a recent automobile accident.

GROUP 4, New England in the middle – The last group looks at players who spent time elsewhere on either side of a Revolution stint: Eric Wynalda (4.99 to 0.00 to 7.41), Giovanni Saverese (6.71 to 4.85 to 0.00), John Harkes (1.55 to 0.42 to 0.00), Mamadou Diallo (8.71 to 2.05 to 13.51), and Raul Diaz Arce (6.71 to 6.25 to 4.81).

Three of these—Saverese, Harkes, and Diaz Arce (the latter with the 2nd best production for the Revolution, 6.25, bracketed by Twellman and Moore)—followed the pattern of aging players. The other two, however (Wynalda and Diallo), saw impressive resurgences.

Some of MLS’ best have graced the Revolution’s roster over time: Chacon, Chronopolous, Diallo, Diaz Arce, Graciani, Harkes, Harris, Hurtado, Lalas, Moore, Ramos, Saverese, Serna, Twellman, Welton, Wynalda. Unfortunately for New England, they’ve spent a third of their collective time with the Revolution while only managing to net a fifth of their goals.

New England’s fans (mourners?) have been among the league’s best, placing them third in average attendance since 1996 (only the much more populous Los Angeles and New York have done better). With CMGI Field now in operation, New England’s stadium (funeral home?) is among the league’s best. On paper, New England’s current team is among the league’s best.

Until the Revolution can snap the scoring jinx, however, they will face an uphill battle every time they step on the pitch.



 
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